Trăim momente istorice?

Criza financiarã internaţionalã, schimbarea administraţiei americane, necesitatea reformãrii instituţiilor internaţionale şi prezenţa, “în bocanci”, a Rusiei pe scena politică internaţionalã oferã pentru prima oarã o şansã Europei, reprezentatã, bineînteles, de Uniunea Europeană, cea care sã impunã lumii primordialitatea unei politicii raţionale, axată pe negocieri şi, de ce nu, dacă este nevoie, pe compromisuri.
Liderii europeni au participat, deja, la un recent summit european avand conştiinta apartenenţei la “prima economie mondialã”, lansând un mesaj clar în acest sens înaintea summitului G20.
Dispariţia de pe scena politică internaţională a lui George W. Bush (un fel de Nikita Hrusciov al politicii americane) alãturi de indispensabilul sãu prieten de afaceri Dick Chaney, va obliga noua administratie americanã sã treacã la “curãţenia generalã” a politicii externe, şi, mai ales, la mãsuri menite sã-i îmbunãtãţeascã imaginea şi prestigiul.

Rãmâne întrebarea: va reuşi Europa sã-şi impunã punctul de vedere la summitul G20, şi dacã, prin aceasta se va ajunge la contracararea efectelor crizei financiare?

Indiferent de ce se va întâmpla la G20, un lucru e clar: rolul Americii de “primã voce” în arena internaţionalã va fi “acoperit” tot mai mult de UE.

Premierul britanic, Gordon Brown, s-a impus ca vocea numãrul unu în implementarea unor mãsuri privind limitarea efectelor crizei financiare internaţionale, dar şi în regândirea sistemului financiar internaţional.

Criza din Caucaz cu tragicul ei final, războiul din Georgia, a oferit prilejul diplomaţiei europene, reprezentată de Franţa (în calitate de ţarã care asigură presedinţia semestrială a UE) sã se remarce şi, pânã la urmã sã creeze cadrul politic pentru încetarea ostilitãţilor. “Copilul teribil al Americii”, Mikhail Saakasvili, s-a dovedit pânã la urmã un diletant, demonstrându-şi limitele, şi mai ales, nãruind speranţele ce se puseserã în el. UE atrãsese atenţia asupra caracterului acestuia încã de la ultimele alegeri, marcate de grave nereguli, şi de corupţia endemicã patronatã de acesta în propria ţarã.

În dosarul nuclear iranian, se pare cã tot diplomaţia europeanã e cea care menţine echilibrul, Înaltul Reprezentant pentru Politica de Securitate şi de Apãrare a UE, Javier Solana, fiind implicat direct în soluţionarea acestuia.

Cei care cântau “prohodul” UE, odatã cu extinderea, sunt puşi acum în faţa unei dileme. E oare mai eficient sistemul birocratic de la Bruxelles, marcat de negocieri, dezbateri şi pãreri contradictorii, decât supleţea actului decizional american? Se pare că da! Iar acest lucru e posibil exact datoritã veşnicelor negocieri de pe marginea fiecãrei decizii a UE, din care inevitabil rezultã o atitudine echilibratã.

În ceea ce priveşte America, se cuvine o observaţie: Nu poţi sã ajungi la putere cu o camarilã şi sã ai pretenţii şi la o bunã guvernare.

În loc de concluzii:
UE va reuşi, în viitor, sã-şi impunã punctul de vedere în relaţiile internaţionale chiar dacã mecanismul decizional la nivelul Uniunii nu a fost perfectat.

Criza instituţionalã la nivelul UE va fi depãşitã, exact prin conştientizarea tuturor actorilor din cadrul Uniunii cã apartenenţa la grup poate duce la traversarea perioadelor dificile.

Ascendentul UE, în relaţiile internaţionale, este unul istoric, iar acum este susţinut şi de un argument politic şi economic pe mãsurã.

Veşnica problemă cu Rusia trebuie şi poate fi rezolvatã diplomatic, UE având resursele necesare sã o facã. Rusia are tot atât de multă nevoie de UE, cât are UE de Rusia. Resursele Rusiei (umane si naturale) cuplate cu tehnologia europeanã pot transforma regiunea în motorul economic al omenirii. Sã fie oare aceasta dilema americanã?

Raul-Ciprian Dãncutã
11 noiembrie 2008
la 90 de ani de la finalul Primului Rãzboi Mondial

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